Slight Swing Momentum Strategy.Introduction:
The Swing Momentum Strategy is a quantitative trading strategy designed to capture mid-term opportunities in the financial markets by combining swing trading principles with momentum indicators. It utilizes a combination of technical indicators, including moving averages, crossover signals, and volume analysis, to generate buy and sell signals. The strategy aims to identify market trends and capitalize on price momentum for profit generation.
Highlights:
The strategy offers several key highlights that make it unique and potentially attractive to traders:
Swing Trading with Momentum: The strategy combines the principles of swing trading, which aim to capture short-to-medium-term price swings, with momentum indicators that help identify strong price trends and potential breakout opportunities.
Technical Indicator Optimization: The strategy utilizes a selection of optimized technical indicators, including moving averages and crossover signals, to filter out the noise and focus on high-probability trading setups. This optimization enhances the strategy's ability to identify favourable entry and exit points.
Risk Management: The strategy incorporates risk management techniques, such as position sizing based on equity and dynamic stop loss levels, to manage risk exposure and protect capital. This helps to minimize drawdowns and preserve profits.
Buy Condition:
The buy condition in the strategy is determined by a combination of factors, including A1, A2, A3, XG, and weeklySlope. Let's break it down:
A1 Condition: The A1 condition checks for specific price relationships. It verifies that the ratio of the highest price to the closing price is less than 1.03, the ratio of the opening price to the lowest price is less than 1.03, and the ratio of the highest price to the previous day's closing price is greater than 1.06. This condition looks for a specific pattern indicating potential bullish momentum.
A2 Condition: The A2 condition checks for price relationships related to the closing price. It verifies that the ratio of the closing price to the opening price is greater than 1.05 or that the ratio of the closing price to the previous day's closing price is greater than 1.05. This condition looks for signs of upward price movement and momentum.
A3 Condition: The A3 condition focuses on volume. It checks if the current volume crosses above the highest volume over the last 60 periods. This condition aims to identify increased buying interest and potentially confirms the strength of the potential upward price movement.
XG Condition: The XG condition combines the A1 and A2 conditions and checks if they are true for both the current and previous bars. It also verifies that the ratio of the closing price to the 5-period EMA crosses above the 9-period SMA of the same ratio. This condition helps identify potential buy signals when multiple factors align, indicating a strong bullish momentum and potential entry point.
Weekly Trend Factor: The weekly slope condition calculates the slope of the 50-period SMA over a weekly timeframe. It checks if the slope is positive, indicating an overall upward trend on a weekly basis. This condition provides additional confirmation that the stock is in an upward trend.
When all of these conditions align, the buy condition is triggered, indicating a favourable time to enter a long position.
Sell Condition:
The sell condition is relatively straightforward in the strategy:
Sell Signal: The sell condition simply checks if the closing price crosses below the 10-period EMA. When this condition is met, it indicates a potential reversal or weakening of the upward price momentum, and a sell signal is generated.
Backtest Outcome:
The strategy was backtested over the period from January 22nd, 1999 to May 3rd, 2023, using daily candlestick charts for the NASDAQ: NVDA. The strategy used an initial capital of 1,000,000 USD, The order quantity is defined as 10% of the equity. The strategy allows for pyramiding with 1 order, and the transaction fee is set at 0.03% per trade. Here are the key outcomes of the backtest:
Net Profit: 539,595.84 USD, representing a return of 53.96%.
Percent Profitable: 48.82%
Total Closed Trades: 127
Profit Factor: 2.331
Max Drawdown: 68,422.70 USD
Average Trade: 4,248.79 USD
Average Number of Bars in Trades: 11, indicating the average duration of the trades.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the Swing Momentum Strategy is a quantitative trading approach that combines swing trading principles with momentum indicators to identify and capture mid term trading opportunities. The strategy has demonstrated promising results during backtesting, including a significant net profit and a favourable profit factor.
Komut dosyalarını "moving average crossover" için ara
LoTek - CT Moving Average Crossover Indicator - MTF [CT/LoTek]This is a shameless fork of Caretaker's excellent CT MAC indicator. This indicator has 2 new features. I've added the ability to select a different timeframe for each moving average. This way you can set a Daily 10, or a weekly 20 or any other of your favorite lines and it will always be there on your chart. The other new features is the ability to select VWMA as well as SMA and EMA for each moving average. VWMA is pretty nice to watch as well, and with 9 moving averages to mix and match, I'm sure you'll find something worth keeping.
To fork this, I created a new "resolution" variable for each MA. I also created a new function that uses the request.security call to get the specific timeframe resolution. I backtested this with CT's OG script and the numbers stay the same... but I have a sneaky suspicion that VWMAs are not showing proper crossover values. So keep that in mind. The drawn lines are fine, but the crossover data when using VWMA may be off. I wrote the new function to default to EMA, so if it fails at VWMA, it will just show you EMA data.
Let's see, what else... please tell me if you find any bugs or want any other features baked in.
AMRS_LongOnly_PartTimerThis Script is created to back-test the data starting 01/01/2000 based on AMRS strategy.
AMRS is long only strategy. It is based on unique calculation around moving averages and 2 year high price.
There are few strategies for moving average crossovers but AMRS strategy is unique compared to other moving averages strategies as it has very specific below mentioned calculations evolving around moving average and stock price.
AMRS strategy is unique one to generate buying signals when stock price creates new 2 year high and retraces back to 13 day EMA value.
AMRS strategy is unique one having specific calculation for entry signal and exit signal as mentioned below. This strategy gives back testing results to help build conviction on entry/exits if trades were taken in past as per the AMRS rules.
As per AMRS strategy this script generates green arrow on each time when new 2 year high is made and also generates long signal indicated by white arrow when stock price retraces back to 13 day EMA value and price is within 10% range from 2 year high.
This strategy will generate white arrow on the chart for each buy signal when stock price reaches 13 day EMA after first Long signal is generated. These subsequent buy signals can be used for pyramiding.
Entry Signal Logic : 1. Stock should be trading near 2 year high.
2. Stock price should be within 10% range from 2 year high
3. Stock price should be less than or equal to 13 day EMA and grater than equal to 21 day EMA
This AMRS strategy also generates exit signal for already generated buy signal (open position).
Exit signal generated when stock price closes 5% below 21 day EMA or when stock price closes below 20% from most recent 2 year high price.
Exit Signal Logic : 1. Stock price closes 5% below 21 day EMA or stock price closes below 20% from most recent 2 year high price.
2. Since exit logic is based on closing price it is plotted on the chart next day.
3. So when exit signal is plotted on the chart, previous days stock price is either closed below 5% of 21 day EMA or corrected 20% from recent 2 year high.
Note : To Calculate last entry positions % return, by default all positions are getting closed on mentioned end date.
Script parameters :
start date as 01/01/2000 - Constructed from Start Year - 2000, Start Month - 1 Start Date - 1
End date (mostly current date) Constructed from Values in End Year, End Month, End Date.
Initial Capital - Defaulted to 100000
Order Size - 5% of Equity
Pyramiding - 3 orders
Commission - 0.2%
Slippage - 1 tick (Since this strategy exit is on close basis mostly there wont be any slippages)
Portfolio Backtester Engine█ OVERVIEW
Portfolio Backtester Engine (PBTE). This tool will allow you to backtest strategies across multiple securities at once. Allowing you to easier understand if your strategy is robust. If you are familiar with the PineCoders backtesting engine , then you will find this indicator pleasant to work with as it is an adaptation based on that work. Much of the functionality has been kept the same, or enhanced, with some minor adjustments I made on the account of creating a more subjectively intuitive tool.
█ HISTORY
The original purpose of the backtesting engine (`BTE`) was to bridge the gap between strategies and studies . Previously, strategies did not contain the ability to send alerts, but were necessary for backtesting. Studies on the other hand were necessary for sending alerts, but could not provide backtesting results . Often, traders would have to manage two separate Pine scripts to take advantage of each feature, this was less than ideal.
The `BTE` published by PineCoders offered a solution to this issue by generating backtesting results under the context of a study(). This allowed traders to backtest their strategy and simultaneously generate alerts for automated trading, thus eliminating the need for a separate strategy() script (though, even converting the engine to a strategy was made simple by the PineCoders!).
Fast forward a couple years and PineScript evolved beyond these issues and alerts were introduced into strategies. The BTE was not quite as necessary anymore, but is still extremely useful as it contains extra features and data not found under the strategy() context. Below is an excerpt of features contained by the BTE:
"""
More than `40` built-in strategies,
Customizable components,
Coupling with your own external indicator,
Simple conversion from Study to Strategy modes,
Post-Exit analysis to search for alternate trade outcomes,
Use of the Data Window to show detailed bar by bar trade information and global statistics, including some not provided by TV backtesting,
Plotting of reminders and generation of alerts on in-trade events.
"""
Before I go any further, I want to be clear that the BTE is STILL a good tool and it is STILL very useful. The Portfolio Backtesting Engine I am introducing is only a tangental advancement and not to be confused as a replacement, this tool would not have been possible without the `BTE`.
█ THE PROBLEM
Most strategies built in Pine are limited by one thing. Data. Backtesting should be a rigorous process and researchers should examine the performance of their strategy across all market regimes; that includes, bullish and bearish markets, ranging markets, low volatility and high volatility. Depending on your TV subscription The Pine Engine is limited to 5k-20k historical bars available for backtesting, which can often leave the strategy results wanting. As a general rule of thumb, strategies should be tested across a quantity of historical bars which will allow for at least 100 trades. In many cases, the lack of historical bars available for backtesting and frequency of the strategy signals produces less than 100 trades, rendering your strategy results inconclusive.
█ THE SOLUTION
In order to be confident that we have a robust strategy we must test it across all market regimes and we must have over 100 trades. To do this effectively, researchers can use the Portfolio Backtesting Engine (PBTE).
By testing a strategy across a carefully selected portfolio of securities, researchers can now gather 5k-20k historical bars per security! Currently, the PTBE allows up to 5 securities, which amounts to 25k-100k historical bars.
█ HOW TO USE
1 — Add the indicator to your chart.
• Confirm inputs. These will be the most important initial values which you can change later by clicking the gear icon ⚙ and opening up the settings of the indicator.
2 — Select a portfolio.
• You will want to spend some time carefully selecting a portfolio of securities.
• Each security should be uncorrelated.
• The entire portfolio should contain a mix of different market regimes.
You should understand that strategies generally take advantage of one particular type of market regime. (trending, ranging, low/high volatility)
For example, the default RSI strategy is typically advantageous during ranging markets, whereas a typical moving average crossover strategy is advantageous in trending markets.
If you were to use the standard RSI strategy during a trending market, you might be selling when you should be buying.
Similarily, if you use an SMA crossover during a ranging market, you will find that the MA's may produce many false signals.
Even if you build a strategy that is designed to be used only in a trending market, it is still best to select a portfolio of all market regimes
as you will be able to test how your strategy will perform when the market does something unexpected.
3 — Test a built-in strategy or add your own.
• Navigate to gear icon ⚙ (settings) of strategy.
• Choose your options.
• Select a Main Entry Strat and Alternate Entry Strat .
• If you want to add your own strategy, you will need to modify the source code and follow the built-in example.
• You will only need to generate (buy 1 / sell -1/ neutral 0) signals.
• Select a Filter , by default these are all off.
• Select an Entry Stop - This will be your stop loss placed at the trade entry.
• Select Pyamiding - This will allow you to stack positions. By default this is off.
• Select Hard Exits - You can also think of these as Take Profits.
• Let the strategy run and take note of the display tables results.
• Portfolio - Shows each security.
• The strategy runs on each asset in your portfolio.
• The initial capital is equally distributed across each security.
So if you have 5 securities and a starting capital of 100,000$ then each security will run the strategy starting with 20,000$
The total row will aggregate the results on a bar by bar basis showing the total results of your initial capital.
• Net Profit (NP) - Shows profitability.
• Number of Trades (#T) - Shows # of trades taken during backtesting period.
• Typically will want to see this number greater than 100 on the "Total" row.
• Average Trade Length (ATL) - Shows average # of days in a trade.
• Maximum Drawdown (MD ) - Max peak-to-valley equity drawdown during backtesting period.
• This number defines the minimum amount of capital required to trade the system.
• Typically, this shouldn’t be lower than 34% and we will want to allow for at least 50% beyond this number.
• Maximum Loss (ML) - Shows largest loss experienced on a per-trade basis.
• Normally, don’t want to exceed more than 1-2 % of equity.
• Maximum Drawdown Duration (MDD) - The longest duration of a drawdown in equity prior to a new equity peak.
• This number is important to help us psychologically understand how long we can expect to wait for a new peak in account equity.
• Maximum Consecutive Losses (MCL) - The max consecutive losses endured throughout the backtesting period.
• Another important metric for trader psychology, this will help you understand how many losses you should be prepared to handle.
• Profit to Maximum Drawdown (P:MD) - A ratio for the average profit to the maximum drawdown.
• The higher the ratio is, the better. Large profits and small losses contribute to a good PMD.
• This metric allows us to examine the profit with respect to risk.
• Profit Loss Ratio (P:L) - Average profit over the average loss.
• Typically this number should be higher in trend following systems.
• Mean reversion systems show lower values, but compensate with a better win %.
• Percent Winners (% W) - The percentage of winning trades.
• Trend systems will usually have lower win percentages, since statistically the market is only trending roughly 30% of the time.
• Mean reversion systems typically should have a high % W.
• Time Percentage (Time %) - The amount of time that the system has an open position.
• The more time you are in the market, the more you are exposed to market risk, not to mention you could be using that money for something else right?
• Return on Investment (ROI) - Your Net Profit over your initial investment, represented as a percentage.
• You want this number to be positive and high.
• Open Profit (OP) - If the strategy has any open positions, the floating value will be represented here.
• Trading Days (TD) - An important metric showing how many days the strategy was active.
• This is good to know and will be valuable in understanding how long you will need to run this strategy in order to achieve results.
█ FEATURES
These are additional features that extend the original `BTE` features.
- Portfolio backtesting.
- Color coded performance results.
- Circuit Breakers that will stop trading.
- Position reversals on exit. (Simulating the function of always in the market. Similar to strategy.entry functionality)
- Whipsaw Filter
- Moving Average Filter
- Minimum Change Filter
- % Gain Equity Exit
- Popular strategies, (MACD, MA cross, supertrend)
Below are features that were excluded from the original `BTE`
- 2 stage in-trade stops with kick-in rules (This was a subjective decision to remove. I found it to be complex and thwarted my use of the `BTE` for some time.)
- Simple conversion from Study to Strategy modes. (Not possible with multiple securities)
- Coupling with your own external indicator (Not really practical to use with multiple securities, but could be used if signals were generated based on some indicator which was not based on the current chart)
- Use of the Data Window to show detailed bar by bar trade information and global statistics.
- Post Exit Analysis.
- Plotting of reminders and generation of alerts on in-trade events.
- Alerts (These may be added in the future by request when I find the time.)
█ THANKS
The whole PineCoders team for all their shared knowledge and original publication of the BTE and Richard Weismann for his ideas on building robust strategies.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Easy Loot Golden CrossGolden/Death Cross Moving Average Indicator
30, 100 & 200 period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
30 = Yellow
100 = Green
200 = Black
Black crosses mark the 'golden crosses' as well as the 'death crosses'. These black crosses appear when the 30 crosses the 100 & when the 100 crosses the 200. These black crosses don't tell you when to buy/sell, but simply indicate interest in the market.
This code is open-source so feel free to add this indicator to your chart and play around with the different moving average timeframes & color schemes.
Golden Cross
The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market. Basically, the short-term average trends up faster than the long-term average, until they cross.
There are three stages to a golden cross:
A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted
A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average
Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices
Death Cross
Conversely, a similar downside moving average crossover constitutes the death cross and is understood to signal a decisive downturn in a market. The death cross occurs when the short term average trends down and crosses the long-term average, basically going in the opposite direction of the golden cross.
The death cross preceded the economic downturns in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & EMA & MA Crossover This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The Moving Average Crossover trading strategy is possibly the most popular
trading strategy in the world of trading. First of them were written in the
middle of XX century, when commodities trading strategies became popular.
This strategy is a good example of so-called traditional strategies.
Traditional strategies are always long or short. That means they are never
out of the market. The concept of having a strategy that is always long or
short may be scary, particularly in today’s market where you don’t know what
is going to happen as far as risk on any one market. But a lot of traders
believe that the concept is still valid, especially for those of traders who
do their own research or their own discretionary trading.
This version uses crossover of moving average and its exponential moving average.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Simple Moving Averages Alert Scriptcan set alerts on 3 moving averages (crossovers) , experiment with different moving average lengths in the input settings menu, there is also a toggle switch which turns off the 3rd moving average being used as a stop.
will add a backtesting version at some point
Tillson T3 Moving Average MTFMULTIPLE TIME FRAME version of Tillson T3 Moving Average Indicator
Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior -1.60% to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA , double EMA , triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend.
The T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner. Here are several assumptions:
If the price action is above the T3 Moving Average and the indicator is headed upward, then we have a bullish trend and should only enter long trades (advisable for novice/intermediate traders). If the price is below the T3 Moving Average and it is edging lower, then we have a bearish trend and should limit entries to short. Below you can see it visualized in a trading platform.
Although the T3 MA is considered as one of the best swing following indicators that can be used on all time frames and in any market, it is still not advisable for novice/intermediate traders to increase their risk level and enter the market during trading ranges (especially tight ones). Thus, for the purposes of this article we will limit our entry signals only to such in trending conditions.
Once the market is displaying trending behavior, we can place with-trend entry orders as soon as the price pulls back to the moving average (undershooting or overshooting it will also work). As we know, moving averages are strong resistance/support levels, thus the price is more likely to rebound from them and resume its with-trend direction instead of penetrating it and reversing the trend.
And so, in a bull trend, if the market pulls back to the moving average, we can fairly safely assume that it will bounce off the T3 MA and resume upward momentum, thus we can go long. The same logic is in force during a bearish trend .
And last but not least, the T3 Moving Average can be used to generate entry signals upon crossing with another T3 MA with a longer trackback period (just like any other moving average crossover). When the fast T3 crosses the slower one from below and edges higher, this is called a Golden Cross and produces a bullish entry signal. When the faster T3 crosses the slower one from above and declines further, the scenario is called a Death Cross and signifies bearish conditions.
I Personally added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the box in the input section. traders can combine the two lines to have Buy/Sell signals from the crosses.
Developed by Tim Tillson
Multiple Moving Averages Alerts ScriptAlerts script that has triggers on multiple moving average crossovers so that profit is maximised, it also has an optional control moving average, enabled by default, that when active will stop trading when the price (first ma) is below the control moving average.
Source code is open so that others can use and modify
Click Below for Backtesting version:
Disclaimers, not an expert, not intended to be financial advise.
Biffy
Moving Averages - BacktestingAlerts script that has triggers on multiple moving average crossovers so that profit is maximised, it also has an optional control moving average, enabled by default, that when active will stop trading when the price (first ma) is below the control moving average.
Source code is open so that others can use and modify
Click Below for Alerts Study version:
Disclaimers, not an expert, not intended to be financial advise.
Biffy
Tillson T3 Moving Average by KIVANÇ fr3762Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA , double EMA , triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend.
The T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner. Here are several assumptions:
If the price action is above the T3 Moving Average and the indicator is headed upward, then we have a bullish trend and should only enter long trades (advisable for novice/intermediate traders). If the price is below the T3 Moving Average and it is edging lower, then we have a bearish trend and should limit entries to short. Below you can see it visualized in a trading platform.
Although the T3 MA is considered as one of the best swing following indicators that can be used on all time frames and in any market, it is still not advisable for novice/intermediate traders to increase their risk level and enter the market during trading ranges (especially tight ones). Thus, for the purposes of this article we will limit our entry signals only to such in trending conditions.
Once the market is displaying trending behavior, we can place with-trend entry orders as soon as the price pulls back to the moving average (undershooting or overshooting it will also work). As we know, moving averages are strong resistance/support levels, thus the price is more likely to rebound from them and resume its with-trend direction instead of penetrating it and reversing the trend.
And so, in a bull trend, if the market pulls back to the moving average, we can fairly safely assume that it will bounce off the T3 MA and resume upward momentum, thus we can go long. The same logic is in force during a bearish trend .
And last but not least, the T3 Moving Average can be used to generate entry signals upon crossing with another T3 MA with a longer trackback period (just like any other moving average crossover). When the fast T3 crosses the slower one from below and edges higher, this is called a Golden Cross and produces a bullish entry signal. When the faster T3 crosses the slower one from above and declines further, the scenario is called a Death Cross and signifies bearish conditions.
I Personally added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the box in the input section. traders can combine the two lines to have Buy/Sell signals from the crosses.
Developed by Tim Tillson
Oscillator SignalsOscillator Signals – Smart Trading with RSI & Stochastic
Stop waiting for false reversals—trade the confirmed moves!
Developed by Marcelo Ulisses Sobreiro Ribeiro
Many traders struggle with the Stochastic Oscillator because it can linger in overbought (OB) or oversold (OS) zones for long periods, leading to premature entries. This script solves that problem by only triggering signals when Stochastic exits these zones, combined with RSI crossovers for higher-confidence trades.
🔹 Key Features:
✅ No More False Alerts – Avoids signals inside OB/OS zones—waits for Stochastic to exit (confirming momentum shift).
✅ RSI + Moving Average Crossovers – Adds a second layer of confirmation when RSI crosses its moving average.
✅ Combined Alerts – Strongest signals occur when:
Stochastic exits oversold (OS) and RSI crosses above its MA (▲ Bullish).
Stochastic exits overbought (OB) and RSI crosses below its MA (▼ Bearish).
✅ Fully Customizable – Adjust lengths, OB/OS levels, and toggle signals.
✅ Built-in Alerts – Never miss a setup.
🔹 Why It Works Better:
Traditional Stochastic signals often fail because price can stay stuck in OB/OS for extended periods. This script ignores entries inside the zones and only acts when:
Stochastic leaves OS (crosses above 20) + RSI confirms uptrend.
Stochastic leaves OB (crosses below 80) + RSI confirms downtrend.
Filters out weak reversals, focusing on high-probability breakouts.
🔹 Ideal For:
Traders tired of "whipsaws" from premature OB/OS entries.
Swing traders seeking confirmed reversals.
Combining with support/resistance for precision.
📌 Pro Tip: Pair this with price action (e.g., breakouts from key levels) for even stronger signals!
Try it now—trade less, profit more! 🚀
Key Improvements:
Problem-Solution Framework: Directly addresses the "Stochastic lingering" issue upfront.
Stronger Emphasis on Confirmation: Highlights how the script waits for OB/OS exits to avoid fakeouts.
Clearer Value Proposition: Positions the script as a filter for higher-quality signals.
UVR Crypto TrendINDICATOR OVERVIEW: UVR CRYPTO TREND
The UVR Crypto Trend indicator is a custom-built tool designed specifically for cryptocurrency markets, utilizing advanced volatility, momentum, and trend-following techniques. It aims to identify trend reversals and provide buy and sell signals by analyzing multiple factors, such as price volatility(UVR), RSI (Relative Strength Index), CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), and EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The indicator is optimized for CRYPTO MARKETS only.
KEY FEATURES AND HOW IT WORKS
Volatility Analysis with UVR
The UVR (Ultimate Volatility Rate) is a proprietary calculation that measures market volatility by comparing significant price extremes and smoothing the data over time.
Purpose: UVR aims to reduce noise in low-volatility environments and highlight significant movements during higher-volatility periods. While it strives to improve filtering in low-volatility conditions, it does not guarantee perfect performance, making it a balanced and adaptable tool for dynamic markets like cryptocurrency.
HOW UVR (ULTIMATE VOLATILITY RATE) IS CALCULATED
UVR is calculated using a method that ensures precise measurement of market volatility by comparing price extremes across consecutive candles:
Volatility Components:
Two values are calculated to represent potential price fluctuations:
The absolute difference between the current candle's high and the previous candle's low:
Volatility Component 1=∣High−Low ∣
The absolute difference between the previous candle's high and the current candle's low:
Volatility Component 2=∣High −Low∣
Volatility Ratio:
The larger of the two components is selected as the Volatility Ratio, ensuring UVR captures the most significant movement:
Volatility Ratio=max(Volatility Component 1,Volatility Component 2)
Smoothing with SMMA:
To stabilize the volatility calculation, the Volatility Ratio is smoothed using a Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) over a user-defined period (e.g., 14 candles):
UVR=(UVR(Previous)×(Period−1)+Volatility Ratio)/Period
This calculation ensures UVR adapts dynamically to market conditions, focusing on significant price movements while filtering out noise.
RSI FOR MOMENTUM DETECTION
RSI (Relative Strength Index) identifies overbought and oversold conditions.
Trend Confirmation at the 50 Level
RSI values crossing above 50 signal the potential start of an upward trend.
RSI values crossing below 50 indicate the potential start of a downward trend.
Key Reversals at Extreme Levels
RSI detects trend reversals at overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) levels.
For example:
Overbought Trend Reversal: RSI >70 followed by bearish price action signals a potential downtrend.
Oversold Trend Reversal: RSI <30 with bullish confirmation signals a potential uptrend.
Rare Extreme RSI Readings
Extreme levels, such as RSI <12 (oversold) or RSI >88 (overbought), are used to identify rare yet powerful reversals.
---HOW IT DIFFERS FROM OTHER INDICATORS---
Using UVR High and Low Values
The Ultimate Volatility Rate (UVR) focuses on analyzing the high and low price ranges of the market to measure volatility.
Unlike traditional trend indicators that rely primarily on momentum or moving average crossovers, UVR leverages price extremes to better identify trend reversals.
This approach ensures fewer false signals during low-volatility phases and more accurate trend detection during high-volatility conditions.
UVR as the Core Component
The indicator is fundamentally built around UVR as the primary filter, while supporting tools like RSI (momentum detection), CMF (volume confirmation), and EMA (trend validation) complement its functionality.
By integrating these additional components, the indicator provides a multidimensional analysis rather than relying solely on a single approach.
Dynamic Adaptation to Volatility
UVR dynamically adjusts to market conditions, striving to improve filtering in low-volatility phases. While not flawless, this approach minimizes false signals and adapts more effectively to varying levels of market activity.
Trend Clouds for Visual Guidance
UVR-based dynamic clouds visually mark high and low price areas, highlighting potential consolidation or retracement zones.
These clouds serve as guides for setting stop-loss or take-profit levels, offering clear risk management strategies.
BUY AND SELL SIGNAL LOGIC
BUY CONDITIONS
Momentum-Based Buy-Entry
RSI >50, CMF >0, and the close price is above EMA50.
The price difference between open and close exceeds a threshold based on UVR.
Oversold Reversal
RSI <30 and CMF >0 with a strong bullish candle (close > open and UVR-based sensitivity filter).
Breakout Confirmation
The price breaks above a previously identified resistance, with conditions for RSI and CMF supporting the breakout.
Reversal from Oversold RSI Extreme
RSI <12 on the previous candle with a strong rebound on the current candle with UVR confirmation filter.
SELL CONDITIONS
Momentum-Based Sell-Entry
RSI <50, CMF <0, and the close price is below EMA50.
The price difference between open and close exceeds the UVR threshold.
Overbought Reversal
RSI >70 with bearish price action (open > close and UVR-based sensitivity filter).
Breakdown Confirmation
The price breaks below a previously identified support, with RSI and CMF supporting the breakdown.
Reversal from Overbought RSI Extreme
RSI >88 on the previous candle with a bearish confirmation on the current candle with UVR confirmation filter.
BUY AND SELL SIGNALS VISUALIZATION
The UVR Crypto Trend Indicator visually represents buy and sell conditions using dynamic plots, making it easier for traders to interpret and act on the signals. Below is an explanation of the visual representation:
Buy Signals and Visualization
Signal Trigger:
A buy signal is generated when one of the defined Buy Conditions is met (e.g., RSI >50, CMF >0, price above EMA50).
Visual Representation:
A blue upward arrow appears at the candle where the buy condition is triggered.
A blue cloud forms above the price candles, representing the strength of the bullish trend. The cloud dynamically adapts to market volatility, using the UVR calculation to mark support zones or consolidation levels.
Purpose of the Blue Cloud:
It acts as a visual guide for price movements and stay horizontal when the trend is not moving up
Sell Signals and Visualization
Signal Trigger:
A sell signal is generated when one of the defined Sell Conditions is met (e.g., RSI <50, CMF <0, price below EMA50).
Visual Representation:
A red downward arrow appears at the candle where the sell condition is triggered.
A red cloud forms below the price candles, representing the strength of the bearish trend. Like the blue cloud, it uses the UVR calculation to dynamically mark resistance zones or potential retracement levels.
Purpose of the Red Cloud:
It acts as a visual guide for price movements and stay horizontal when the trend is not moving down.
CONCLUSION
The UVR Crypto Trend indicator provides a powerful tool for trend reversal detection by combining volatility analysis, momentum confirmation, and trend-following techniques. Its unique use of the Ultimate Volatility Rate (UVR) as a core element, supported by proven indicators like RSI, CMF, and EMA, ensures reliable and actionable signals tailored for the crypto market's dynamic nature. By leveraging UVR’s high and low price range analysis, it achieves a level of precision that traditional indicators lack, making it a high-performing system for cryptocurrency traders.
Traders Trend DashboardThe Traders Trend Dashboard (TTD) is a comprehensive trend analysis tool designed to assist traders in making informed trading decisions across various markets and timeframes. Unlike conventional trend-following scripts, TTD goes beyond simple trend detection by incorporating a unique combination of moving averages and a visual dashboard, providing traders with a clear and actionable overview of market trends. Here's how TTD stands out from the crowd:
Originality and Uniqueness:
TTD doesn't rely on just one moving average crossover to detect trends. Instead, it employs a dynamic approach by comparing two moving averages of distinct periods across multiple timeframes. This innovative methodology enhances trend detection accuracy and reduces false signals commonly associated with single moving average systems.
Market Applicability:
TTD is versatile and adaptable to various financial markets, including forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. Its flexibility ensures that traders can utilize it across different asset classes and capitalize on market opportunities.
Optimal Timeframe Utilization:
Unlike many trend indicators that work best on specific timeframes, TTD caters to traders with diverse trading preferences. It offers support for intraday trading (1m, 3m, 5m), short-term trading (15m, 30m, 1h), and swing trading (4h, D, W, M), making it suitable for a wide range of trading styles.
Underlying Conditions and Interpretation:
TTD is particularly effective during trending markets, where its multi-timeframe approach helps identify consistent trends across various time horizons. In ranging markets, TTD can indicate potential reversals or areas of uncertainty when moving averages converge or cross frequently.
How to Use TTD:
1. Timeframe Selection: Choose the relevant timeframes based on your trading style and preferences. Enable or disable timeframes in the settings to focus on the most relevant ones for your strategy.
2. Dashboard Interpretation: The TTD dashboard displays green (🟢) and red (🔴) symbols to indicate the relationship between two moving averages. A green symbol suggests that the shorter moving average is above the longer one, indicating a potential bullish trend. A red symbol suggests the opposite, indicating a potential bearish trend.
3. Confirmation and Strategy: Consider TTD signals as confirmation for your trading strategy. For instance, in an uptrend, look for long opportunities when the dashboard displays consistent green symbols. Conversely, in a downtrend, focus on short opportunities when red symbols dominate.
4. Risk Management: As with any indicator, use TTD in conjunction with proper risk management techniques. Avoid trading solely based on indicator signals; instead, integrate them into a comprehensive trading plan.
Conclusion:
The Traders Trend Dashboard (TTD) offers traders a powerful edge in trend analysis, combining innovation, versatility, and clarity. By understanding its unique methodology and integrating its signals with your trading strategy, you can make more informed trading decisions across various markets and timeframes. Elevate your trading with TTD and unlock a new level of trend analysis precision.
Oliver Velez IndicatorOliver Velez is a well-known trader and educator who has developed multiple trading strategies. One of them is the 20-200sma strategy, which is a basic moving average crossover strategy. The strategy involves using two simple moving averages (SMAs) - a short-term SMA with a period of 20 and a long-term SMA with a period of 200 - on a 2-minute timeframe chart.
When the short-term SMA crosses above the long-term SMA, it signals a potential bullish trend and traders may look for opportunities to enter a long position. Conversely, when the short-term SMA crosses below the long-term SMA, it signals a potential bearish trend and traders may look for opportunities to enter a short position.
Traders using this strategy may also look for additional confirmations, such as price action signals or other technical indicators, before entering or exiting a trade. It is important to note that no trading strategy can guarantee profits, and traders should always use risk management techniques to limit potential losses.
This script is an implementation of the 2 SMA's (can also choose other types of MA's), with Elephant Bar Indicator (EBI) and the Tail Bars Indicator in TradingView.
The Elephant Bar Indicator is a technical indicator used in trading to identify potential trend reversals in the market. It is named after the large size of the bullish or bearish candlestick that it represents. The Tail Bars Indicator is a pattern recognition technique that identifies candlestick patterns with long tails or wicks.
The script starts by defining the input parameters for both indicators. For the Elephant Bar Indicator, the user inputs the lookback period and the size multiplier. For the Tail Bars Indicator, the user inputs the tail ratio and opposite wick ratio.
Next, the script calculates the moving averages of the closing price over the defined short and long periods using the Moving Average function. The script then calculates the average candle size and volume over the lookback period.
The script then identifies the Elephant Bars and Tail Bars using the input parameters and additional conditions. For Elephant Bars, the script identifies bullish and bearish bars that meet certain criteria, such as a size greater than the average candle size and volume greater than the average volume.
For Tail Bars, the script identifies bullish and bearish bars that have long tails or wicks and meet certain criteria such as opposite wick size less than or equal to the tail size multiplied by the input opposite wick ratio.
Finally, the script plots the Elephant Bar and Tail Bar signals on the chart using different colors and shapes. The script also plots the moving averages and Keltner Channels to help traders identify potential trend reversals.
It is still under development, so please, if someone has ideas to add, more than welcome
Arch1tect's New ToyDescription:
Arch1tect's New Toy tries to predict market trends by simply utilising 2 moving averages crossovers.
How it works:
Buy signals are triggered when the faster MA crosses over the slower MA from the downside to the upside.
Sell signals are triggered when the faster MA crosses under the slower MA from the upside to the downside.
How to use:
Take buys when buy signal is triggered AND close existing sell position
Take sells when sell signal is triggered AND close existing buy position
Note:
Settings are optimised for XAUUSD on the M1 chart.
Extra:
Alerts are included.
You can toggle between EMA , WMA and SMA to your liking.
Strategy Tester version:
Arch1tect's New Toy (Strategy Tester Version)Description:
The version of Arch1tect's New Toy indicator with Strategy Tester added.
This indicator tries to predict market trends by simply utilising 2 moving averages crossovers.
How it works:
Buy signals are triggered when the faster MA crosses over the slower MA from the downside to the upside.
Sell signals are triggered when the faster MA crosses under the slower MA from the upside to the downside.
How to use:
Take buys when buy signal is triggered AND close existing sell position
Take sells when sell signal is triggered AND close existing buy position
Note:
Settings are optimised for XAUUSD on the M1 chart.
Extra:
Alerts are included.
You can toggle between EMA, WMA and SMA to your liking.
Indicator version:
Predictive EMAFrom the MQL5 Indicator database, here is what the author said about the script,
"Goal of this indicator:
Given three EMA's of varying lengths, use their values
for a estimator of "where we are now" or will be in the near future.
This is a very simplistic method, better ones are probably found
in the signal processing and target tracking literature.
A Kalman filter has been known since the 1950's 1960's and there
is better still. Nevertheless this is easily programmable in the
typical environments of a retail trading application like Metatrader4.
Method:
An an exponential moving average (EMA) or a simple moving average (SMA), for that
matter, have a bandwidth parameter 'L', the effective length of the window. This
is in units of time or, really, inverse of frequency. Higher L means a lower
frequency effect.
With a parameter L, the weighted time index of the EMA and SMA is (L-1)/2. Example:
take an SMA of the previous 5 values: -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 now. The average "amount of time"
back in the past of the data which go in to the SMA is hence -3, or (L-1)/2. Same applies
for an EMA. The standard parameterization makes this correspondence between EMA
and SMA.
Therefore the idea here is to take two different EMA's, a longer, and
a shorter of lengths L1 and L2 (L2 <L1). Now take the pairs:
which defines a line.
Extrapolate to , solve for y and that is the predictive EMA estimate.
Application:
Traditional moving averages, as simple-minded linear filters, have significant group delay.
In engineering that isn't so important as nobody cares if your sound from your iPod is delayed
a few milliseconds after it is first processed. But in markets, you can't
trade on the smoothed price, only the actual noisy, market price now. Hence you
ought to estimate better.
This statistic (what math/science people call what technical analysts call an 'indicator')
may be useful as the "fast" moving average in a moving average crossover trading system.
It could also be useful for the slow moving average as well.
For instance, on a 5 minute chart:
try for the fast: (will be very wiggly, note)
LongPeriod 25.0
ShortPeriod 8.0
ExtraTimeForward 1.0
and for the slow:
LongPeriod 500.0
ShortPeriod 50.0 to 200.0
ExtraTimeForward 0.0
But often a regular MA for the slow can work as well or better, it appears from visual inspection.
Enjoy.
In chaos there is order, and in that order there is chaos and order inside again.
Then, surrounding everything, pointy haired bosses. "
I may have done it incorrectly, feel free to revise
Long-Leg Doji Breakout StrategyThe Long-Leg Doji Breakout Strategy is a sophisticated technical analysis approach that capitalizes on market psychology and price action patterns.
Core Concept: The strategy identifies Long-Leg Doji candlestick patterns, which represent periods of extreme market indecision where buyers and sellers are in equilibrium. These patterns often precede significant price movements as the market resolves this indecision.
Pattern Recognition: The algorithm uses strict mathematical criteria to identify authentic Long-Leg Doji patterns. It requires the candle body to be extremely small (≤0.1% of the total range) while having long wicks on both sides (at least 2x the body size). An ATR filter ensures the pattern is significant relative to recent volatility.
Trading Logic: Once a Long-Leg Doji is identified, the strategy enters a "waiting mode," monitoring for a breakout above the doji's high (long signal) or below its low (short signal). This confirmation approach reduces false signals by ensuring the market has chosen a direction.
Risk Management: The strategy allocates 10% of equity per trade and uses a simple moving average crossover for exits. Visual indicators help traders understand the pattern identification and trade execution process.
Psychological Foundation: The strategy exploits the natural market cycle where uncertainty (represented by the doji) gives way to conviction (the breakout), creating high-probability trading opportunities.
The strength of this approach lies in its ability to identify moments when market sentiment shifts from confusion to clarity, providing traders with well-defined entry and exit points while maintaining proper risk management protocols.
How It Works
The strategy operates on a simple yet powerful principle: identify periods of market indecision, then trade the subsequent breakout when the market chooses direction.
Step 1: Pattern Detection
The algorithm scans for Long-Leg Doji candles, which have three key characteristics:
Tiny body (open and close prices nearly equal)
Long upper wick (significant rejection of higher prices)
Long lower wick (significant rejection of lower prices)
Step 2: Confirmation Wait
Once a doji is detected, the strategy doesn't immediately trade. Instead, it marks the high and low of that candle and waits for a definitive breakout.
Step 3: Trade Execution
Long Entry: When price closes above the doji's high
Short Entry: When price closes below the doji's low
Step 4: Exit Strategy
Positions are closed when price crosses back through a 20-period moving average, indicating potential trend reversal.
Market Psychology Behind It
A Long-Leg Doji represents a battlefield between bulls and bears that ends in a stalemate. The long wicks show that both sides tried to push price in their favor but failed. This creates a coiled spring effect - when one side finally gains control, the move can be explosive as trapped traders rush to exit and momentum traders jump aboard.
Key Parameters
Doji Body Threshold (0.1%): Ensures the body is truly small relative to the candle's range
Wick Ratio (2.0): Both wicks must be at least twice the body size
ATR Filter: Uses Average True Range to ensure the pattern is significant in current market conditions
Position Size: 10% of equity per trade for balanced risk management
Pros:
High Probability Setups: Doji patterns at key levels often lead to significant moves as they represent genuine shifts in market sentiment.
Clear Rules: Objective criteria for entry and exit eliminate emotional decision-making and provide consistent execution.
Risk Management: Built-in position sizing and exit rules help protect capital during losing trades.
Market Neutral: Works equally well for long and short positions, adapting to market direction rather than fighting it.
Visual Confirmation: The strategy provides clear visual cues, making it easy to understand when patterns are forming and trades are triggered.
Cons:
False Breakouts: In choppy or ranging markets, price may break the doji levels only to quickly reverse, creating whipsaws.
Patience Required: Traders must wait for both pattern formation and breakout confirmation, which can test discipline during active market periods.
Simple Exit Logic: The moving average exit may be too simplistic, potentially cutting profits short during strong trends or holding losers too long during reversals.
Volatility Dependent: The strategy relies on sufficient volatility to create meaningful doji patterns - it may underperform in extremely quiet markets.
Lagging Entries: Waiting for breakout confirmation means missing the very beginning of moves, reducing potential profit margins.
Best Market Conditions
The strategy performs optimally during periods of moderate volatility when markets are making genuine directional decisions rather than just random noise. It works particularly well around key support/resistance levels where the market's indecision is most meaningful.
Optimization Considerations
Consider combining with additional confluence factors like volume analysis, support/resistance levels, or other technical indicators to improve signal quality. The exit strategy could also be enhanced with trailing stops or multiple profit targets to better capture extended moves while protecting gains.
Best for Index option,
Enjoy !!
Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI)Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI)
What is Lyapunov Market Instability?
Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI) is a revolutionary indicator that brings chaos theory from theoretical physics into practical trading. By calculating Lyapunov exponents—a measure of how rapidly nearby trajectories diverge in phase space—LMI quantifies market sensitivity to initial conditions. This isn't another oscillator or trend indicator; it's a mathematical lens that reveals whether markets are in chaotic (trending) or stable (ranging) regimes.
Inspired by the meditative color field paintings of Mark Rothko, this indicator transforms complex chaos mathematics into an intuitive visual experience. The elegant simplicity of the visualization belies the sophisticated theory underneath—just as Rothko's seemingly simple color blocks contain profound depth.
Theoretical Foundation (Chaos Theory & Lyapunov Exponents)
In dynamical systems, the Lyapunov exponent (λ) measures the rate of separation of infinitesimally close trajectories:
λ > 0: System is chaotic—small changes lead to dramatically different outcomes (butterfly effect)
λ < 0: System is stable—trajectories converge, perturbations die out
λ ≈ 0: Edge of chaos—transition between regimes
Phase Space Reconstruction
Using Takens' embedding theorem , we reconstruct market dynamics in higher dimensions:
Time-delay embedding: Create vectors from price at different lags
Nearest neighbor search: Find historically similar market states
Trajectory evolution: Track how these similar states diverged over time
Divergence rate: Calculate average exponential separation
Market Application
Chaotic markets (λ > threshold): Strong trends emerge, momentum dominates, use breakout strategies
Stable markets (λ < threshold): Mean reversion dominates, fade extremes, range-bound strategies work
Transition zones: Market regime about to change, reduce position size, wait for confirmation
How LMI Works
1. Phase Space Construction
Each point in time is embedded as a vector using historical prices at specific delays (τ). This reveals the market's hidden attractor structure.
2. Lyapunov Calculation
For each current state, we:
- Find similar historical states within epsilon (ε) distance
- Track how these initially similar states evolved
- Measure exponential divergence rate
- Average across multiple trajectories for robustness
3. Signal Generation
Chaos signals: When λ crosses above threshold, market enters trending regime
Stability signals: When λ crosses below threshold, market enters ranging regime
Divergence detection: Price/Lyapunov divergences signal potential reversals
4. Rothko Visualization
Color fields: Background zones represent market states with Rothko-inspired palettes
Glowing line: Lyapunov exponent with intensity reflecting market state
Minimalist design: Focus on essential information without clutter
Inputs:
📐 Lyapunov Parameters
Embedding Dimension (default: 3)
Dimensions for phase space reconstruction
2-3: Simple dynamics (crypto/forex) - captures basic momentum patterns
4-5: Complex dynamics (stocks/indices) - captures intricate market structures
Higher dimensions need exponentially more data but reveal deeper patterns
Time Delay τ (default: 1)
Lag between phase space coordinates
1: High-frequency (1m-15m charts) - captures rapid market shifts
2-3: Medium frequency (1H-4H) - balances noise and signal
4-5: Low frequency (Daily+) - focuses on major regime changes
Match to your timeframe's natural cycle
Initial Separation ε (default: 0.001)
Neighborhood size for finding similar states
0.0001-0.0005: Highly liquid markets (major forex pairs)
0.0005-0.002: Normal markets (large-cap stocks)
0.002-0.01: Volatile markets (crypto, small-caps)
Smaller = more sensitive to chaos onset
Evolution Steps (default: 10)
How far to track trajectory divergence
5-10: Fast signals for scalping - quick regime detection
10-20: Balanced for day trading - reliable signals
20-30: Slow signals for swing trading - major regime shifts only
Nearest Neighbors (default: 5)
Phase space points for averaging
3-4: Noisy/fast markets - adapts quickly
5-6: Balanced (recommended) - smooth yet responsive
7-10: Smooth/slow markets - very stable signals
📊 Signal Parameters
Chaos Threshold (default: 0.05)
Lyapunov value above which market is chaotic
0.01-0.03: Sensitive - more chaos signals, earlier detection
0.05: Balanced - optimal for most markets
0.1-0.2: Conservative - only strong trends trigger
Stability Threshold (default: -0.05)
Lyapunov value below which market is stable
-0.01 to -0.03: Sensitive - quick stability detection
-0.05: Balanced - reliable ranging signals
-0.1 to -0.2: Conservative - only deep stability
Signal Smoothing (default: 3)
EMA period for noise reduction
1-2: Raw signals for experienced traders
3-5: Balanced - recommended for most
6-10: Very smooth for position traders
🎨 Rothko Visualization
Rothko Classic: Deep reds for chaos, midnight blues for stability
Orange/Red: Warm sunset tones throughout
Blue/Black: Cool, meditative ocean depths
Purple/Grey: Subtle, sophisticated palette
Visual Options:
Market Zones : Background fields showing regime areas
Transitions: Arrows marking regime changes
Divergences: Labels for price/Lyapunov divergences
Dashboard: Real-time state and trading signals
Guide: Educational panel explaining the theory
Visual Logic & Interpretation
Main Elements
Lyapunov Line: The heart of the indicator
Above chaos threshold: Market is trending, follow momentum
Below stability threshold: Market is ranging, fade extremes
Between thresholds: Transition zone, reduce risk
Background Zones: Rothko-inspired color fields
Red zone: Chaotic regime (trending)
Gray zone: Transition (uncertain)
Blue zone: Stable regime (ranging)
Transition Markers:
Up triangle: Entering chaos - start trend following
Down triangle: Entering stability - start mean reversion
Divergence Signals:
Bullish: Price makes low but Lyapunov rising (stability breaking down)
Bearish: Price makes high but Lyapunov falling (chaos dissipating)
Dashboard Information
Market State: Current regime (Chaotic/Stable/Transitioning)
Trading Bias: Specific strategy recommendation
Lyapunov λ: Raw value for precision
Signal Strength: Confidence in current regime
Last Change: Bars since last regime shift
Action: Clear trading directive
Trading Strategies
In Chaotic Regime (λ > threshold)
Follow trends aggressively: Breakouts have high success rate
Use momentum strategies: Moving average crossovers work well
Wider stops: Expect larger swings
Pyramid into winners: Trends tend to persist
In Stable Regime (λ < threshold)
Fade extremes: Mean reversion dominates
Use oscillators: RSI, Stochastic work well
Tighter stops: Smaller expected moves
Scale out at targets: Trends don't persist
In Transition Zone
Reduce position size: Uncertainty is high
Wait for confirmation: Let regime establish
Use options: Volatility strategies may work
Monitor closely: Quick changes possible
Advanced Techniques
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Higher timeframe LMI for regime context
- Lower timeframe for entry timing
- Alignment = highest probability trades
- Divergence Trading
- Most powerful at regime boundaries
- Combine with support/resistance
- Use for early reversal detection
- Volatility Correlation
- Chaos often precedes volatility expansion
- Stability often precedes volatility contraction
- Use for options strategies
Originality & Innovation
LMI represents a genuine breakthrough in applying chaos theory to markets:
True Lyapunov Calculation: Not a simplified proxy but actual phase space reconstruction and divergence measurement
Rothko Aesthetic: Transforms complex math into meditative visual experience
Regime Detection: Identifies market state changes before price makes them obvious
Practical Application: Clear, actionable signals from theoretical physics
This is not a combination of existing indicators or a visual makeover of standard tools. It's a fundamental rethinking of how we measure and visualize market dynamics.
Best Practices
Start with defaults: Parameters are optimized for broad market conditions
Match to your timeframe: Adjust tau and evolution steps
Confirm with price action: LMI shows regime, not direction
Use appropriate strategies: Chaos = trend, Stability = reversion
Respect transitions: Reduce risk during regime changes
Alerts Available
Chaos Entry: Market entering chaotic regime - prepare for trends
Stability Entry: Market entering stable regime - prepare for ranges
Bullish Divergence: Potential bottom forming
Bearish Divergence: Potential top forming
Chart Information
Script Name: Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI) Recommended Use: All markets, all timeframes Best Performance: Liquid markets with clear regimes
Academic References
Takens, F. (1981). "Detecting strange attractors in turbulence"
Wolf, A. et al. (1985). "Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series"
Rosenstein, M. et al. (1993). "A practical method for calculating largest Lyapunov exponents"
Note: After completing this indicator, I discovered @loxx's 2022 "Lyapunov Hodrick-Prescott Oscillator w/ DSL". While both explore Lyapunov exponents, they represent independent implementations with different methodologies and applications. This indicator uses phase space reconstruction for regime detection, while his combines Lyapunov concepts with HP filtering.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for research and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or provide direct buy/sell signals. Chaos theory reveals market character, not future prices. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See markets through the lens of chaos. Trade the regime, not the noise.
Bringing theoretical physics to practical trading through the meditative aesthetics of Mark Rothko
Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
Liquidity Market Seeking SwiftEdgeThis indicator is designed to identify potential liquidity levels on the chart by detecting swing highs and lows, which are often areas where stop-loss orders or significant orders accumulate. It visualizes these levels with horizontal lines and labels on the right side of the chart, color-coded based on volume to help traders understand where the market might seek liquidity.
How It Works
Swing Highs and Lows: The indicator uses the ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow functions to identify significant swing points over a user-defined lookback period (Swing Length). These points are considered potential liquidity levels where stop-loss orders might be placed.
Volume Analysis: The indicator compares the volume at each swing point to the average volume over a specified period (Volume Average Length). Levels with above-average volume are colored red, indicating higher liquidity, while levels with below-average volume are colored green.
Liquidity Visualization: Horizontal dashed lines are drawn at each identified level, extending across the chart. Labels on the right side display the estimated liquidity amount (simulated based on volume and a multiplier, Volume Multiplier for Liquidity).
Sell Signal: A "SELL NOW" label appears when the price approaches a liquidity level after an uptrend (detected using a simple moving average crossover). This suggests a potential reversal as the market may target liquidity at that level.
Strategy Concept: Market Seeking Liquidity
The indicator is based on the concept that markets often move toward areas of high liquidity, such as clusters of stop-loss orders or significant order accumulations. These liquidity pools are typically found around swing highs and lows, where traders place their stop-losses or large orders. By identifying these levels and highlighting those with higher volume (red lines), the indicator aims to show where the market might move to "grab" this liquidity. For example, after an uptrend, the market may reverse at a swing high to take out stop-losses above that level, providing liquidity for larger players to enter or exit positions.
Settings
Swing Length: The number of bars to look back for detecting swing highs and lows. Default is 20.
Liquidity Threshold: The price threshold for merging nearby levels to avoid duplicates. Default is 0.001.
Volume Average Length: The period for calculating the average volume to compare against. Default is 20.
Volume Multiplier for Liquidity: A multiplier to scale the volume into a simulated liquidity amount (displayed as "K"). Default is 1000.
Usage Notes
Use this indicator on any timeframe, though it may be more effective on higher timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H) where swing points are more significant.
Red lines indicate levels with higher volume, suggesting stronger liquidity pools that the market might target.
Green lines indicate levels with lower volume, which may be less significant.
The "SELL NOW" signal is a basic example of how to use liquidity levels for trading decisions. It appears when the price approaches a liquidity level after an uptrend, but it should be used in conjunction with other analysis.
Adjust the Volume Multiplier for Liquidity to scale the displayed liquidity amounts based on your instrument (e.g., forex pairs may need a higher multiplier than indices).
Optimized Auto-Detect Strategy (MA, ATR, Trend, RSI) Overview
This script is designed for traders seeking a trend-following approach that adapts to different currency pairs (e.g., EURUSD, NZDUSD, XAUUSD). It combines moving average crossovers with ATR-based stops, optional trend filters, and RSI filters to help reduce false signals and capture larger moves.
Key Features
1. Auto-Detect Logic
- Automatically applies different moving average periods and ATR multipliers based on the symbol (e.g., XAUUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD).
- Makes it easy to switch charts without manually adjusting parameters each time.
2. ATR-Based Stop
- Uses the Average True Range (ATR) to set dynamic stop-loss levels, adapting to each market’s volatility.
3. Optional Trend Filter
- Filters out trades if price is below the 200 SMA for longs (and above for shorts), aiming to avoid choppy, range-bound markets.
4. Optional RSI Filter
- Only enters long if RSI is above a certain threshold (e.g., 50), or short if below another threshold, reducing entries during low momentum.
5. Partial Exit & Trailing/Break-Even
- Locks in partial profit at a chosen R:R (e.g., 1:1), then either trails the remaining position or moves the stop to break-even.
- This helps capture additional gains if the trend extends beyond the initial target.
6. Customizable Parameters
- You can toggle on/off each filter (Trend, RSI) and adjust the ATR multiplier, MA periods, partial exit levels, etc.
- Allows easy optimization for different pairs or timeframes.
How to Use
1. Add to Chart: Click “Add to chart” in the Pine Editor.
2. Configure Inputs: In the script’s settings, toggle the filters you want (Trend Filter, RSI Filter, etc.) and set your desired ATR multiplier, RSI thresholds, partial exit ratio, etc.
3. Strategy Tester: Check the performance under the “Strategy Tester” tab. Adjust parameters if needed.
4. Realistic Settings: Consider adding spreads/commissions in the “Properties” tab for more accurate backtests, especially if you trade pairs with higher spreads (like XAUUSD).
Disclaimer
No Guarantee: This script does not guarantee profits. Markets are unpredictable, and results may vary with market conditions.
For Educational Purposes: Always do your own research and forward testing. Past performance does not indicate future results.
MA Win RateMoving Average Cross Win Rate
This simple yet useful script calculates the percentage of times a moving average crossover successfully predicts price movement.
Win Conditions:
1] A Golden Cross (fast MA crossing above slow MA) where the price moves up afterward.
2] A Death Cross (fast MA crossing below slow MA) where the price moves down afterward.
In this script, I have used a Simple Moving Average (SMA) for illustration.
You can modify the code to apply any type of moving average and test its accuracy.
